Watching the Habs dominate in the circle made me wonder about the impact that Manny Malhotra, one of the top faceoff specialists, had on the Canadiens this year. To further my curiosity, I heard Martin Lemay talking on TSN 690 about how Malhotra keeps detailed records on other team's centers and that he was been working with Lars Eller on improving Lars' faceoff technique.
I have compiled the data below that compares the faceoff winrate of the key centers on teams for the year before Malhotra with the year he arrived. I included all of the teams only after Malhotra had established himself as a dominant faceoff man. (All of the statistics were taken from NHL.com)
Montreal
Year Befor Malhotra (2013-2014)
Year with Malhotra (2014-2015)
Change
Player
FOs
Win %
FOs
Win %
Absolute
Change %
T. Plekanec
1712
48.00%
139
47.50%
-0.50%
-1%
D. Desharnais
1202
50.80%
138
57.20%
6.40%
13%
L. Eller
979
53.20%
96
56.20%
3.00%
6%
Carolina
Year Befor Malhotra (2012-2013)
Year with Malhotra (2013-2014)
Change
Player
FOs
Win %
FOs
Win %
Absolute
Change %
J. Staal
914
50.10%
1477
54.40%
4.30%
9%
E. Staal
1014
52.00%
1430
52.70%
0.70%
1%
R. Nash
289
44.30%
666
46.00%
1.70%
4%
Vancouver
Year Befor Malhotra (2010-2011)
Year with Malhotra (2010-2011)
Change
Player
FOs
Win %
FOs
Win %
Absolute
Change %
H. Sedin
1527
49.50%
1387
52.00%
2.50%
5%
R. Kesler
1401
55.10%
1496
57.40%
2.30%
4%
San Jose
Year Befor Malhotra (2009-2010)
Year with Malhotra (2010-2011)
Change
Player
FOs
Win %
FOs
Win %
Absolute
Change %
J. Thorton
1295
55.40%
1228
53.90%
-1.50%
-3%
J. Pavelski
1274
56.30%
821
58.10%
1.80%
3%
P. Marleau
591
52.40%
615
51.40%
-1.00%
-2%
Conclusion
Although the sample size for the Canadiens this year is too small to count, it does appear that both Carolina and Vancouver saw large net increases in winrate after Malhotra's arrival. The Sharks saw a net decrease.
Although we cannot be sure as to the reason for the increases in winrate (is it due to lower quality of competition, due to learning from Malhotra, or variance) it does seem like there is a positive trend on faceoffs when Malhotra arrives at a new team.
With the arrival of penalty killing and faceoff specialist Blair Betts today, the Canadiens roster is begining to round into form. At the same time, the Canadiens sent Engqvist to Hamilton, meaning that they have now demoted Palushaj,Blunden, Engqvist, and Woywitka in the past few days. Picking up Betts is a clear sign that management does not believe that the youngsters were up the task of playing in the NHL this year.
The Canadiens now have 24 players on the roster when everyone is healthy, an unlikely scenario, and might have to clear a spot on their roster at some point this year. The only players who don't need to pass through waivers or won't leave for Russia are Diaz and Subban. I think it is safe to say that, barring a trade, the Habs will send Diaz down if they need to make space on the roster once Markov is healthy.
With the first game of the season so close, I will post both my hope for the opening night lineup and for the long-term lineup when everyone is healthy.
Lineup for the opening night
Left
Center
Right
Cammalleri
Plekanec
Cole
Pacioretty
Gomez
Gionta
Darche
Desharnais
Kostitsyn
Moen
Betts
Weber
Injured: Eller, White
Left Defence
Right Defence
Gill
Subban
Campoli
Gorges
Spacek
Diaz
Extras: Yemelin
Inj: Markov
Goaltender
Price
Budaj
Lineup once everyone is healthy
Left
Center
Right
Cammalleri
Plekanec
Cole
Pacioretty
Gomez
Gionta
Desharnais
Eller
Kostitsyn
Moen
Betts
White
Extras: Darche, Weber
Left Defence
Right Defence
Markov
Gorges
Gill
Subban
Campoli
Spacek
Extras: Diaz, Yemelin
Goaltender
Price
Budaj
The question I am left with is what will the Canadiens do with Yemelin long term? He clearly needs game time to adjust to the small ice surface and he will not get that being a healthy scratch. If the Habs don't try and develop him or frequently scratch him, then they run the risk that he will go back to the KHL. My solution would be to platoon him with Diaz to start the season to make sure the gets as much game time as possible. It is not everyday that the Habs have a 6'2 d-prospect who can hit and skate.
Lets hope that the Habs have a good year as they have far more forward depth then they have had in a long time. I am expecting a breakout year from Eller, Desharnais, and Kostitsyn with at least 40 points from each player.
Every year, I actively watch the waiver wire to see which fringe NHLers are sent to the minors. Some names come up frequently, like Mike Zigomanis, Nolan Yonkman, and a series of others. However, every now and then, a few interesting names pop up and teams have access to a player that could potentialy make an impact on the season. Last year, the New York Islanders were lucky enough to benefit from Florida's mistake and grab Michael Grabner on waivers. Grabner went on to be one of the top rookies scorers and pot more than 30 goals for the Islanders. After scanning the wire quickly, which players could make an impact this year for teams and who do I think the Habs should try and pick up?
The first category of interesting players that could have an impact on an new team are those who are sent to the minors because they are not living up to their contract or the teams do not have adequate cap space to keep them at the NHL level. The most prominent players who have fallen into this situation are Christobal Huet, Wade Redden, and Ales Kotalik. All three players would most likely still be playing in the NHL if not for their contracts. However, it will be interesting to see if any of these three will get a shot in the next few years as the salary cap continues to rise and the impact of their contracts is diminished.
There are a few servicable defencemen on the wire this year, highlighted by Shaone Morrisonn, who has played for Washington and Buffalo at the NHL level, but was caught in a numbers game this year for the Sabres as they added Regehr, Erhoff, and youngster M-A Gragnani. Morrisonn has size, 6-4 and 210 pounds, and averaged just over 16 minutes of ice time last year so he should be able to find work in the NHL this year. Perharps the Islanders, who are in need of a defenceman would be a possible fit, plus they had success last year.
Another category of players who frequently pass through waivers are enforcers. This year, potential heavy-weight champ, Eric Godard, was placed on waivers by the Stars. Godard is in an interesting situation because he signed a two-year deal with the Stars in the offseason and has a two-way clause for the first year. With the Stars being strapped for cash and already having an enforcer, Krys Barch, albeit not of Godard's stature, singed for this season, it made sense for the Stars to waive Godard this year and plan to have him with the NHL club next season. I would have loved for the Habs to put a claim in for Godard. I have always felt that fighting has no place in hockey but it would make sense for the Canadiens to have an enforcer since the NHL does not share my opinion on fighting and seems to endorce violence. If you are going to have a goon, you might as well have one of the best and Godard definetely fits the bill. Plus, he seems comfortable with limited ice and game time, playing 20 games, and he is a team player, as is evident by his taking a 10 game suspension to protect backup goalie Brent Johnson.
Godard Fights
Godard coming off the bench
Godard vs Orr
Godard vs Neil
The other player who, in my opinion, should be of some interest to the Canadiens is Philly goon Tom Sestito. Although it appears that Sestito will soon be suspended for his hit on Andre Deveaux, he does fit the mold of a player the Habs are lacking. Although he does not appear to be as tough as Godard, he does have size, 6-5 and 220 pounds, and he is more capable of taking a regular shift scoring 4 points in 9 games with Columbus and 32 points in 46 games with their minor league affiliate last season.
Suspension looming for Sestito
This clip shows that Sestito can skate decently for a big man
Either Godard or Sestito could fit in with the Habs, with Sestito being my first choice, and provide some more grit on the fourth line. The downside to taking a shot on either is limited as they can both be sent to the minors on a two-way contract this year if they don't work out. The Habs could give them a quick try-out as players like White heal from injuries. It is not as if any of the current players in camp have played well enough to deserve a spot ahead of either of these two.
The Habs signed defenceman Chris Campoli today who played was with Ottawa and Chicago this past season. Campoli was an unrestricted free agent after Chicago refused his arbitration award and instead signed defencemen Sean O'Donnell, Sami Lepisto, and Steve Montador who will provide them with far more toughness.
Campoli, who turned 27 this summer, is listed at 6 feet and 190 pounds. His most productive offensive season was his rookie year, 2005-2006, when he scored 34 points for the Islanders, but also a -16 which is a career worst. He has only reached 30 points one other time in his career.
The most likely cause of this signing is that Markov's knee injury is worse than expected. Campoli plays left defense, a position that is under filled by the projected Canadiens defense to start the season. Currently, the Habs project to have Spacek and Gill as the other left defencemen, while Subban, Gorges, Yemelin, and Weber play on the right side.
This signing also appears to be a sign that the coaching staff does not have faith that Woywitka could fill a depth role at the NHL level and the some of the other youngsters, like Nash and Beaulieu, require more seasoning in Hamilton and junior.
I am not that happy with the signing because it seems that the only skill that Campoli brings is that he is left handed and can play on the left side. He has never shown to have a lot of offensive upside, nor has he shown the ability to be a strong defender, twice being -16 and never having a +/- greater than zero in a single season. His skill set - strong puck-mover, decent skater - seem to be duplicated in other youngsters, like Diaz and Weber, who are on the bubble. The Habs could have played Gorges on the left side to fill the need for a left d. I would like to have seen those two get a greater chance to prove themselves before the Canadiens reached out and signed Campoli.
Habs fans expectations should have been pretty low when the line-ups for
last night's pre-season game were announced. After all, the Habs were not even
dressing one line that will be expected to play together this season while the
the Sabres had their top three lines and top 4 D dressed for the game.
The result was a 3-1 loss by the Habs capped off by an empty net goal. Not
only was the result better than fans could have expected, but the should have
been pleasantly surprised by the strong return of Pacioretty, who looked
comfortable on the ice, and the play by some of the prospects - Beaulieu and
Gallagher in particular - who played far better than could have been
anticipated. The biggest disappointment of the game was the play of Engqvist
and Palushaj who were playing the second game in two nights.
Beaulieu looks like the real deal
After watching Beaulieu play more than 27 minutes, I hope that most fans
have come away with the feeling that he is the real deal and he will be a stud
in the future. Sure he seemed raw at times in his own zone, but his skating,
vision, and poise with the puck were exceptional for a player playing his first
game against competition stronger than major junior.
Three plays really stuck out in my mind that showed glimpses of his future.
Early in the game, he made a beautiful long-bomb pass which demonstrated his
vision. Second, I believe it was in the second period, when he evaded a
forcheck by Brad Boyes while maintaining possession of the puck and he was able
to make a nice outlet pass. It was a nice display of poise and confidence where
other young defenseman might have turned the puck over or just tried to chip it
up the boards. And third, his ability to get back in position after joining the
rush showed that he has the speed to play in the NHL one day.
I am not trying to overhype him and say he is ready for the NHL this year
but he could challenge for a spot next year with a solid year in junior.
Gallagher: Gionta Jr?
The second youngster who had a strong game was Gallagher. He was strong on
the puck, drove the net, and showed glimpses that would make you want to
compare him to the Habs diminutive captain, Brian Gionta. One particular
sequence of note was during the third when he stickhandled through the Sabres defenseman.
Gallagher showed far more drive and determination than some of the other
prospects who have a chance to make the Habs roster this year.
Does anybody want the job of thirteenth forward?
The biggest disappointment of the game was the play of Palushaj and Engqvist
for the second consecutive game. Both players seemed to lack determination and
were invisible on the ice. From the past two games, I don't see a skill set
that will translate well to the NHL for either of them. Palushaj seems like
Maxwell in that he is not strong or fast enough to be a top 6 or top 9 scoring
forward in the NHL. He doesn't have any skills in particular that stand out.
While Engqvist seemed behind the play and also laked any elite or NHL skills
apart from his size. From the game play so far, Blunden has played the best of
the three players battling for the last spot.
Two nights ago, I eagerly sat down to watch the first pre-season
game of the season. My expectations for the game were not a quality hockey
game, but more a chance to observe some of the Canadiens offseason acquisitions
for the first time. The players I was eager to observe were Cole, Yemelin,
Diaz, and the players who would be battling for the thirteenth forward spot
(Engqvist, Palushaj, and Blunden).
As expected, Hab fans were not treated to a quality hockey game
but we did get some glimpses of hope.
Cole was a great aquisition by Gauthier
From what we saw in the first game, Cole is exactly what this team
was missing last year - a big, strong, fast winger who drives to the net and is
not afraid to hit. Cole was strong on the puck and will compliment Pleks and
Cammalleri well throughout the season. An added benefit of the Cole signing is
that Kostitsyn will be freed to play against the other teams third lines. And
as we saw from the game against Dallas, he seemed to thrive as the go-to-guy on
the line. Maybe we will see his emergence as a more consistend offensive threat
this season.
Yemelin has more tools than I expected
I was expecting Yemelin to be a physical force on D. However, I
was surprised by his skating, his vision, and his ability to carry the puck. My
initial expectation is still that he will be a 6-7 defenceman early in the
season but I am now more confident that he will be a key part of the defence by
the end of the season.
Diaz = Weber
As for Diaz, he didn't impress too much and seemed like a very
similar player to Weber - same size, same skill set, and same style game. It
seems like he will be Hamilton bound this season.
Battle for the thirteenth forward spot
I will go into more detail on this subject in my next post because
both Engqvist and Palushaj played the following game.
Like many other Hab fans, I have waited patiently for the arrival of Alexei Yemelin. To my surprise, the Canadiens managed to lure the talented Russian defenceman to Montreal this year. I was happy to hear about this development because I was beginning to lose hope that we would ever see him in a Canadiens sweater given the fact that he kept signing new contracts in the KHL. With that said, what role can we expect Yemelin to play with the Habs this year?
With the top 4 (Markov, Gorges, Gill, Subban) essenstially a lock, the early expectation for Yemelin is to try and make the team as a member of the bottom pairing and playing beside Spacek. However, that being said, it doesn't mean that Yemelin cannot have an impact with the Habs this year. His skillset: big, tough, hard-hitting, and good skating has a many fans salivating over his potential. The one fear I have for Yemelin this year will be how he handles the toughness and intimidation of the NHL.
This year will let us know whether he can put those skills together and turn into a credible top 4 defenceman. If he can, the Habs will have a solid d-core for the next few years as the defence transitions from being led by Markov to one being led by Subban, Yemelin, Tinordi, Gorges, etc. The Habs have nothing to lose this year with Yemelin because the expectation of most fans was that he was a lost prospect along the lines of Korneev and Perezhogin.
Balk
My vision for the Habs D
At the begining of the year, the Habs could start with these combos.
Markov - Gorges
Gill - Subban
Spacek - Yemelin
If Yemelin proves he can play in the top 4, the could move him onto a pair with Markov. This would give the Habs good depth and the ability to roll the three pairs with no fear.
